I wish I had better news than in my last Christmas weather forecast, unfortunately, that is not the case. In fact, if anything, the models have gotten worse. As in “ho-ho-HOLY mother of God!!!!” worse. All major weather models now agree that Christmas will be stormy in Ireland, the only variations affect the timing and the severity.
The general consensus is that the first in a series of Christmas storms will start affecting Ireland early on Friday morning, the 23rd of December. It will reach maximum strength around Friday afternoon, we’re looking at Force 8-9 winds, with storm to hurricane force gusts possible for a time, as well as large amounts of rainfall. Cork is going to get off lightly, however Galway, Sligo, Donegal, as well as Scotland will take the brunt of this storm.
There will be a brief respite on Saturday, before another major storm hits late on Christmas Eve. The core of that storm will stay safely out to sea, however due to the sheer size of that storm, we can expect force 9-10 winds all through Christmas Eve and the morning of Christmas Day. This storm will move off towards Norway during the afternoon, and St. Stephens Day, or Boxing day actually looks quite nice, before the next storm hits on Tuesday, December 27th.
All this will take place in a relatively mild airflow. There is some chance of snow flurries in the aftermath of that first storm, however, once the Christmas Eve storm hits, temperatures will rise to around 11°C, literally melting any chance of a white Christmas.