As mentioned in my weather forecast, it now appears highly likely that Ireland will be hit by a severe weather System on Jan 25th, 2017. The culprit is a complex of strong low pressure areas that is currently located just south of Greenland. This multicore storm complex will spawn a low pressure trough along its southwestern flank sometime between Tuesday and Wednesday. It is this trough that will cause all the trouble we’re about to encounter.
Winds will start to pick up on Wednesday morning, as they swing around to a southerly direction, meaning that the entire country will be affected to some degree. I’m currently expecting sustained winds around 80-90 km/h, with peak gusts well within the three digit range from late morning until into the night. Winds will slacken off overnight, before strengthening again on Thursday morning, as the tail end of the front moves through. In fact, I expect Thursday morning to be the worst of the coming storm.
You can expect heavy rainfalls throughout this event, with the peak once again being on Thursday morning. Spot flooding is likely given the rainfall totals. Tidal flooding along Cork Harbour and the lower reaches of the River Lee is likely as well, as the southerly winds will trap the 3PM high tide on Wednesday, as well as the 4AM high tide on Thursday in Cork Harbour, while we will at the same time experience high runoffs from the mountains surrounding Cork.
While there is still a degree of uncertainty, major weather models GFS, NAVGEM, GEM, and ECWMF all predict this event by now, giving me a high degree of confidence for this warning. While I will do my best to keep you updated, please also keep an eye on the media, Met Éireann, and the alert systems of Cork City or Cork County council.