Good morning, everybody. This forecast is definitely going to be a two-pager! You may have noticed that it has been pretty windy outside this morning. Well, that is only going to get worse over the day as the North Atlantic flexes its muscles. Currently, a small, weak fringe low attached to a much stronger system south of Iceland is moving through the waters west of Ireland. At the same time, a much stronger, fast moving low pressure area has developed just off the Grand Banks. Over the course of the day, the first low will move northwards, before doubling back towards Iceland, and weakening. The second low will follow in its footpath less than 24 hours later, all the while strengthening.
For most of Wednesday, we’ll be dealing with the first, weak, low. Air pressure has been dropping non-stop since around 8 PM last night, and will continue to do so for most of the day. Winds have swung around to southerly directions, and will remain at their current strength for most of the day, possibly strengthening to gale force around noon. A band of rain will also start moving in sometime between 9 AM and noon, clearing Cork late in the afternoon. It won’t be too warm either, with daytime highs just around 10°C, and lows coming in at 5-6°C
The fun starts on Thursday. Winds will swing back to southerly directions overnight, and strengthen to gale force over the course of the morning, as that second low moves into Ireland. In fact, the core of the low will likely make landfall over Galway or Mayo. Due to the nature of the low, it looks like Cork, and pretty much all of Munster will bear the brunt of the storm, which will persist for all of Thursday and into Friday morning. We’re looking at sustained winds around 80 km/h with gusts in the three-digit range highly likely. It will get warmer, with daytime highs of around 11-12°C, dropping back to 6-7° at night. You can expect pretty much non-stop rain throughout the day, although with any luck, Kerry and West Cork will get the worst.
Things will get better on Friday. Early on, winds will swing around to westerly directions and slacken, as the low leaves Ireland and makes a beeline for Iceland. It will get noticeably colder as Arctic air makes its influence known, with daytime highs of 8°C and nighttime lows of just 3-4°C. It should remain mostly dry, though, with only occasional drizzles in the late afternoon and evening.
That also sets the mood for the weather over the weekend, most of the strong storms will likely stay south of Ireland, move along the Bristol Channel or indeed the English Channel, so while it probably won’t be warm, at least it won’t be stormy. As for the weather beyond that, that’s anyone’s guess. All major weather models currently go haywire early next week.